The potential for change is the estimate of whether an intervention can achieve the expected changes before it is implemented or scaled. To evaluate it, we need to contrast the theory of change (what we hope to see thanks to the intervention) with a characterization of the population and its context. Evaluate how aligned the theory of change is with the realities of the territory and, at the same time, understand people's needs, barriers and motivations. With this foundation, you prioritize interventions, choose indicators and reduce the risk of executing blindly. You do it before scaling and also when you need to recalibrate an ongoing program.

Why is it useful?

The potential for change fulfills two central and complementary functions:

  1. Align the strategy with the population. The theory of change is the roadmap to change the lives of others (the step by step to achieve it), while the potential for change verifies whether that path makes sense for this population and in this context.
  2. Understand needs and barriers. Not all populations start from the same point. This characterization identifies capabilities, incentives, social norms, available time and material conditions that condition change.

Designing without the potential for change increases the risk of wasting effort and learning little.

How to do it?

Work in short cycles, start by defining the problem and the population: who they are, where they are and why the change matters. It makes explicit the theory of change - how the intervention would work and why -, connecting interventions, outputs, results and impacts with the real context. Complement with a map of needs and capabilities: what the target people know, can, value and fear.

Then it segments according to variables that affect the response to the mechanism (age, gender, rural/urban, employment situation, etc.) and defines initial indicators for follow-up measurable in weeks or months.

What it produces: findings and decisions

The result is not a decorative report: they are inputs actionable to decide.

  • Population profile and priority segments: who changes the most, who requires adaptations and who should not be attended to for now.
  • Prioritized change mechanism: Which intervention may have the most impact for this population and why.
  • Early indicators and goals: what outputs and results are expected in 3-6 months; how they will be measured.
  • Risks and enabling conditions: what could slow change and how to reduce it (partnerships, operational adjustments, changes in delivery).
  • Portfolio decisions: follow/adjust/discard, evidence-based escalation.

The potential for change produces preliminary findings that guide investment, prioritize segments and avoid eternal pilots.

Alignment with the theory of change (without losing direction)

So that the theory does not remain on paper:

  • Connect assumptions with needs: If the theory says “training → employment”, verify real barriers: child care, transportation, discrimination, soft skills.
  • Ensure necessary conditions: Is there supply and demand, people's time, connectivity, reliable allies?
  • Adjust the mechanism: tutorials instead of long workshops if the population works; WhatsApp support if connectivity is intermittent.
  • Define realistic trajectories: not everyone will achieve the same thing at the same pace; establishes intermediate results per segment.

Remember: social impact is changing the lives of others. The potential for change helps choose where and how that promise is plausible.

Limits, common biases and how to mitigate them

The potential for change does not prove causality, it estimates plausibility (possibility) and guides the design. To take care of quality:

  • Desirability bias: uses concrete examples and guarantees of confidentiality.
  • Sample bias: looks for diverse voices (who participates and who does not) and documents absences.
  • Team optimism: requires writing assumptions and risks; validate with evidence.
  • Consultation fatigue: fewer, clearer instruments; returns findings to the community.
  • Data ethics: informed consent, protection and minimum necessary use.

Frequently asked questions

Conclusion

The potential for change does not replace evaluation, it makes it possible and more effective. It helps you understand people, align the theory of change and choose the mechanism that can move the needle in your context. With well-made preliminary findings, each peso invested learns and performs more. Do you want to design this phase and leave your program ready to measure and improve? Let's talk